Quarterly research · Edition 1

Gun Industry InsightsQ2 2026

The state of the AR-15 market in Q2 2026: which parts rifles were being built with, what was in stock, and what a rifle and a round cost. Read from 56,000+ parts configured and daily pricing across 988 brands and 28 retailers.

Published September 9, 2026 · Data window April 1 to June 30, 2026

Parts from qualifying builds: 56,000+
Products priced: 53,449
Retailers tracked: 28
Series since: Dec 2025

The quarter in numbers

Median build cost

$1,131

▲ +30.0% vs Q1 2026parts only, optics excluded

Cheapest in stock 5.56 per round

$0.550

quarterly average of the daily low

Builds starting from a stripped lower

51.2%

complete lower 33.8%, complete rifle 5.6%

Most selected barrel length

16 in

32.5% of builds with a barrel#2 14.5 in (16.3%), #3 18 in (8.1%)

What changed this quarter

Five findings on the state of the AR-15 market, ranked by how much they contradict the conventional wisdom. Each is a claim, a number and a comparison base, written to be quoted as is.

01
There is no consensus rifle: 99.8% of builds with five or more parts are unique part lists.
Among Q2 builds with at least five parts, 99.8% were distinct combinations. No exact build appeared more than twice.
02
16 inch is the default barrel at 32.5% of builds with a barrel; 14.5 inch is second at 16.3%.
Pistol lengths (10.5, 11.5 and 12.5 inch) add up to 14.4%. 18 and 20 inch rifle barrels take 13.4% between them.
03
Three brands tie at the top: Magpul 43.4%, Geissele 43.1% and Aero Precision 43.1% of builds.
Bravo Company (37.0%) and Strike Industries (34.5%) round out a top five that appears in more than a third of all builds each.
04
Lower receivers had no in stock offer on 78% of tracked product days, uppers 72%.
Furniture was the easiest to buy: stocks were out 23% of the time, grips 25%. Across the whole catalog 38.5% of product days had no in stock offer.
05
51.2% of builds start from a stripped lower, 33.8% from a complete lower and 5.6% from a complete rifle.
92.3% of builds are AR-15 and 5.5% AR-10. The median build is 8 parts with a median parts cost of $1,131.

Where this data comes from

Builder data. Rifle configurations saved in the AR-15 builder from April 1 to June 30, 2026. We drop empty builds, builds with fewer than three parts, Glock builds, staff and test accounts, and builds cloned from a community build and left unchanged; in this window those exclusions removed 42% of saved builds. The qualifying builds contributed 56,000+ part selections. A part counts once per rifle, however many times it was swapped in and out. Roughly 5% of qualifying builds came from signed in accounts; the rest were anonymous sessions.

Price data. 28 retailers, 53,449 products and 988 brands had at least one price observation across 91 daily snapshots in the window (2,809,020 product days). Every price figure uses the lowest in stock offer on the day; days with no in stock offer are excluded from price statistics and counted in the stock rate. Ammo is normalized to cost per round from the listing's round count. Build costs use the lowest in stock offer per part as of September 9, 2026, so quarter to quarter changes reflect part mix, not price movement.

Three caveats. Selections measure intent, not purchases. Only products in the catalog can win a category. People who save configurations skew toward full rifles, so accessory slots are under counted relative to a typical build. Serialized parts (lowers, uppers, complete rifles) are carried by fewer of the tracked retailers, which raises their measured out of stock rate.

Sample: 56,000+ parts from qualifying builds
Exclusions: 42% of saved builds removed
Price sample: 53,449 products, 28 retailers, 91 days
Ammo sample: 55 calibers, daily since Mar 17, 2026
Platform mix: AR-15 92.3%, AR-10 5.5%
Prior editions: none, first edition

What the market is building with

The most built product in each slot, counted once per rifle across 56,000+ parts configured this quarter. Long tail categories (rifle scopes, suppressors, foregrips, mounts, gas blocks, buffer tubes, magnifiers, lasers, iron sights) are in the CSV.

Category	Most selected	Builds	Runner up	Builds	vs Q1 2026
Lower	Wilson CombatWilson Combat Ar-15 Lower Receiver Forged	377	Aero PrecisionAero Precision M4e1 Complete Lower Receiver W/moe Sl Grip &	376	n/a (first edition)
Upper	Bravo CompanyBravo Company Mfg Upper Receiver Assembly w/ Laser T-Markings, Hard Co	398	Bravo CompanyBravo Company Manufacturing 5.56 Nato Mid-Length Bhf Ar-15 B	240	n/a (first edition)
Barrel	Rosco ManufacturingRosco Manufacturing Bloodline 5.56 Ar-15 Barrel M4 Carbine - 14.5"	130	Faxon FirearmsFaxon Firearms 16" 223 Wylde Match Barrel Stainless Steel Bl	97	n/a (first edition)
Handguard	Midwest IndustriesMidwest Industries Quad Rail Ar-15 Handguard - 15"	106	Midwest IndustriesMidwest Industries Suppressor Series M-Lok Ar-15 Handguard -	95	n/a (first edition)
BCG	Bravo CompanyBravo Company M16 Bolt Carrier Group Black	536	Aero PrecisionAero Precision Ar-15 5.56 Bcg W/c158 Bolt - Aero Logo - Phos	285	n/a (first edition)
Trigger	GeisseleGeissele Automatics Llc Ar-15 Ssa-E X Lightning Bow Trigger	827	GeisseleGeissele Automatics Llc Ar-15 Ssa X Lightning Bow Trigger	394	n/a (first edition)
Charging handle	Aero PrecisionAero Precision Ar-15 Breach Charging Handle Ambidextrous Small Levers	533	RadianRadian Raptor Charging Handle & Talon Safety Selector Combo	416	n/a (first edition)
Stock	MagpulMagpul Ar-15 Moe Stock Collapsible Mil-Spec Blk	339	Daniel DefenseDaniel Defense Collapsible Mil-Spec Buttstock, Brown - 21-09	279	n/a (first edition)
Grip	Wilson CombatWilson Combat Ar-15 Starburst Gunfighter Pistol Grip Black	315	MagpulMagpul Moe K2 Grip Polymer Gray	224	n/a (first edition)
Optic	EOTechEotech 3x30.5mm x 21.6mm Holographic Hybrid Green Dot Sight - HHSGRN	359	EOTechEOTech XPS2 Holographic Sight, Tan - XPS2-0TAN	174	n/a (first edition)
Light	StreamlightStreamlight ProTac Rail Mount HL-X Laser 1000 Lumen Weapon Light with	329	StreamlightStreamlight ProTac Rail Mount HL-X 1000 Lumen Weapon Light w	139	n/a (first edition)
Muzzle device	LantacLantac Dragon SilencerCo Asr Muzzle Brake 5.56 - 1/2x28	57	HuxwrxHuxwrx 556 Qd Flash Hider - 1/2x28	50	n/a (first edition)

How rifles are being configured

Fig 01Top five triggers

SVG

The Geissele SSA-E X led triggers with 20.6% of builds with a trigger; the top five triggers hold 48.1% of the slot.

Fig 02Barrel length share

SVG

Other lengths includes 13.7, 13.9, 7.5 and 8.5 inch. 8 barrels had no length attribute.

Fig 03Build cost tiers over time

SVG

Tiers are the bottom, middle and top third of priced builds in each quarter. The series starts in December 2025 with the current builder; the 2020 to 2025 history needs the archived VirtualCarts export before it can be charted on the same axis. Q4 2025 is December only.

The BCM M16 bolt carrier group was in 19.6% of builds with a BCG.
15.4% of signed in accounts that saved a build saved two or more.
Consensus check: 99.8% of builds with five or more parts are distinct part lists. No list repeated more than 2 times.
Repeat builders: 15.4% of signed in accounts saved two or more builds; 1.6% of anonymous sessions did.

AR-15 Build Cost Index

The index prices a fixed AR-15 parts basket at the lowest in stock offer on the first price snapshot of each month. Budget, mid and premium grades are the 20th, 50th and 80th percentile product in each slot. Thirteen of fourteen slots are priced; the lower parts kit is not a tracked category yet.

Basket: stripped lower, stripped upper, barrel, gas block, gas tube, handguard, bolt carrier group, charging handle, trigger, buffer tube assembly, stock, pistol grip, muzzle device. Lower parts kit pending. Year over year starts with the Q3 2027 edition.
Grade	Apr 26	May 26	Jun 26	Q2 2026 avg	vs Q1 2026	vs Q2 2025
budget	$907	$940	$798	$882	n/a	n/a
mid	$1,586	$1,618	$1,605	$1,603	n/a	n/a
premium	$2,969	$3,159	$3,130	$3,086	n/a	n/a

Reference SKUs at each grade (September 1 snapshot)

Slot	Budget (p20)	Mid (p50)	Premium (p80)
Stripped lower	Franklin Armory: Franklin Armory SE-SSP Forged Stripped Pistol Lo ($81)	Yankee Hill Machine: Yankee Hill 125 Stripped Lower Receiver AR-15 22 ($176)	Primary Weapon Systems: PWS MK2 MOD 2 Stripped Lower Receiver ($430)
Stripped upper	Nordic Components: Nordic Components Nc15 Extruded Ar-15 Stripped U ($98)	Luth-AR: Ar-308 A3 Stripped Upper Receiver ($151)	ZRODelta: Zro Delta Ar-15 Forged M4 Stripped Upper Receive ($720)
Barrel	Faxon Firearms: Faxon Firearms Ar-15/m16 16 Pencil Barrel 4150 Q ($170)	Rosco Manufacturing: Rosco Manufacturing Bloodline 5.56 Ar-15 Barrel ($292)	Great Lakes Firearms and Ammunition: Great Lakes Firearms AR-15 Rifle, .223 Wylde 16" ($788)
Gas block	Sadlak Industries: Sadlak Industries .750 Gas Block Lightweight Low ($29)	Sons of Liberty Gun Works: Sons of Liberty Gun Works Liberty Gas Block .750 ($69)	SLR Rifleworks: SLR Rifleworks Sentry Adjustable Gas Block Clamp ($142)
Gas tube	Luth-AR: AR-15 Gas Tube Stainless Steel Carbine ($14)	Lantac: LANTAC USA M-SPEC Carbine Length Stainless Steel ($17)	Bootleg: Bootleg AR-15 Carbine Gas Tube - BPGTCS ($21)
Handguard	Strike Industries: Strike Siviperhgcfd Viper Handguard Ar 15 Rifle ($29)	Midwest Industries: Midwest Industries, Inc. Combat Handguard M-Lok ($153)	: Geissele Super Modular Rail MK14 M-LOK Handguard ($250)
Bolt carrier group	Daniel Defense: Daniel Defense Complete Bolt Head Assembly - 5.5 ($83)	Angstadt Arms: Angstadt Arms .45 Acp Ar-15 Bolt Carrier Group ($164)	Cryptic Coatings: Cryptic Bolt Carrier Group BCG - Complete 458 SO ($247)
Charging handle	Yankee Hill Machine: Yankee Hill Machine Ar-15 Charging Handle ($40)	Armaspec: Armaspec Victory Compact Charging Handle, Black ($73)	Radian: Radian Raptor Ar-15 Charging Handle - Radian Gre ($110)
Trigger	Rise Armament: Rise Armament Don't Tread on Me Gen2 Curved Trig ($100)	CMC Triggers: CMC Single Stage Combat Curved Hybrid Drop-In Tr ($174)	Geissele: Geissele Automatics AR-15 Super Dynamic Combat T ($250)
Buffer tube assembly	AIM Sports: Aim Sports Buffer Tube, Anodized Black - XDB15PS ($32)	Strike Industries: Strike Industries ARPSABK Picatinny Stock Adapte ($52)	San Tan Tactical: San Tan Tactical Ar-15 6-Position Carbine Mil-Sp ($90)
Stock	Adaptive Tactical: Adaptive Tactical EX AR Rifle Stock Lite, Black ($41)	Luth-AR: Luth-Ar Llc Ar-15 A2 Mil-Spec Buttstock Assembly ($66)	Magpul: Magpul Hunter Lite Stock - Savage AXIS Short Act ($171)
Pistol grip	: MFT ENGAGE Pistol Grip ($17)	Wilson Combat: Wilson Combat Pistol Grip, Black ($23)	: Ergo AR15/M16 Flat Top Tactical DLX SureGrip ($39)
Muzzle device	: Battle Arms 223/556 Faux Suppressor Flash Can ($40)	Bravo Company: BCMGUNFIGHTER COMPENSATOR- MOD 4 5.56 ($79)	SilencerCo: Silencerco Steel Blast Shield for ASR Muzzle Dev ($127)

Ammo Price Index

Cost per round is the 5th percentile ("low") and median of in stock listings each day, averaged over the quarter. Daily tracking started March 17, 2026, so there is no prior quarter comparison in this edition.

Fig 04Cost per round, nine calibers

SVG

Quarterly average of daily values. Year over year starts with the Q3 2027 edition.
Caliber	Low $/rd	vs Q1 2026	Median $/rd	In stock listings
.22 LR	$0.047	n/a	$0.228	38
9mm	$0.275	n/a	$0.718	298
12 Gauge	$0.366	n/a	$0.862	761
.45 ACP	$0.450	n/a	$1.004	144
.223 Rem	$0.529	n/a	$1.113	200
5.56 NATO	$0.550	n/a	$0.974	65
.300 Blackout	$0.794	n/a	$1.435	81
.308 Win	$0.990	n/a	$1.941	244
6.5 Creedmoor	$1.319	n/a	$2.014	140

Retail and brand landscape

Fig 05Lowest price retailer share

SVG

KY Gun Company had the lowest in stock price on 20.2% of contested SKU days, ahead of Palmetto State Armory (11.1%), GritR Sports (10.3%) and Optics Planet (10.1%).

Fig 06Brands by build share

SVG

First edition: no prior quarter comparison.

Out of stock rate by category, Q2 2026. Overall 38.5% of 2,809,020 product days.
Category	Product days with no in stock offer	Q1 2026	Products tracked
Lower Receiver	73.2%	78.0%	939
Upper Receiver	68.1%	71.6%	2,995
Barrel	45.9%	50.9%	3,394
Handguard	46.1%	47.4%	2,665
Bolt Carrier Group	47.6%	52.2%	868
Trigger	35.5%	38.0%	876
Charging Handle	31.8%	34.1%	698
Stock & Brace	22.2%	23.1%	951
Pistol Grip	25.6%	25.0%	645
Optic	34.8%	35.9%	1,722
Rifle Scope	32.2%	32.7%	2,508
Light	24.5%	25.8%	1,259
Muzzle Device	31.5%	33.6%	2,144
Suppressor	34.0%	36.4%	1,050
Complete Rifle	51.3%	54.1%	1,197
Gas Block	39.3%	42.5%	440
5.56 NATO	62.6%	65.3%	302

Data downloads

Full data set (CSV)

every table on this page, long format

gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q2.csv

Fig 01 (SVG)

top five triggers

gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q2-fig01.svg

Fig 03 (SVG)

build cost tiers over time

gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q2-fig03.svg

Fig 04 (SVG)

cost per round, nine calibers

gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q2-fig04.svg

Index history (JSON)

quarterly series, cost tiers, build cost index

gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/index-history.json

Print edition (PDF)

available when the quarter closes

Republishing. Everything on this page is free to reuse with attribution to GunPartPicker and a link to this edition. Aggregates only: individual builds are never released. URLs on this page are stable.

Citation and press

Cite as

Source: GunPartPicker Gun Industry Insights, Q2 2026, gunpartpicker.net/insights/2026-q2

Press contact

mack@gunpartpicker.net. Data requests, interviews, custom cuts by category or brand, embargoed early access.

Audience. GunPartPicker is a parts picker for AR-15 builders with tens of thousands of parts configured each quarter and daily prices from 28 retailers. See the media kit.

Next edition. Q3 2026 covers July through September and publishes in the second week of October 2026.

Gun Industry InsightsQ2 2026

The quarter in numbers

What changed this quarter

There is no consensus rifle: 99.8% of builds with five or more parts are unique part lists.

16 inch is the default barrel at 32.5% of builds with a barrel; 14.5 inch is second at 16.3%.

Three brands tie at the top: Magpul 43.4%, Geissele 43.1% and Aero Precision 43.1% of builds.

Lower receivers had no in stock offer on 78% of tracked product days, uppers 72%.

51.2% of builds start from a stripped lower, 33.8% from a complete lower and 5.6% from a complete rifle.