Quarterly research · Edition 2
The state of the AR-15 market in Q3 2026: which parts rifles are being built with, what is gaining and losing ground, what is in stock, and what a rifle and a round cost. Read from 49,000+ parts configured and daily pricing across 988 brands and 27 retailers.
Published September 9, 2026 · Data window July 1 to September 9, 2026 (quarter to date)
Quarter to date. Figures refresh when the quarter closes on September 30, 2026.
Median build cost
$1,162
▲ +2.8% vs Q2 2026parts only, optics excluded
Cheapest in stock 5.56 per round
$0.541
▼ -1.7% vs Q2 2026quarterly average of the daily low
Builds starting from a stripped lower
52.1%
+0.9 pts vs Q2 2026complete lower 33.4%, complete rifle 5.0%
Most selected barrel length
16 in
42.1% of builds with a barrel#2 14.5 in (11.8%), #3 18 in (8.2%)
01
Parts converge (one bolt carrier group is in a quarter of rifles) but rifles do not. The most repeated exact configuration appeared twice all quarter. For brands that means winning a slot, not a build; for retailers it means the long tail is the market.
02
14.5 inch fell from 16.3% to 11.8% and the pistol lengths (10.5, 11.5, 12.5) slipped from 14.4% to 12.1% combined. The short barrel wave the forums describe is not what is being configured; the carbine length is consolidating.
03
Aero fell from 43.1% of rifles to 33.3%, the largest move in the top ten, while Geissele edged Magpul 44.5% to 44.0%. Aero's top parts spent most of the quarter with no in stock offer at tracked retailers, so this is an availability story first and a preference story second.
04
Uppers were out 68% of the time, barrels 46%, bolt carrier groups 48%. Furniture is the opposite: stocks 22%, grips 26%. The overall rate held at 38.3% of product days, level with Q2, so the shortage is concentrated in serialized and machined parts, not spread across the market.
05
9mm held at $0.272 (down 1.2%), .308 Win fell 11% to $0.881 and 6.5 Creedmoor fell 9.4% to $1.195. Rimfire is the exception: the .22 LR floor rose to $0.057, still the cheapest round tracked.
| Part | Slot | Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FN AmericaFn Ar-15 M16 Barrel 16 Mid-Length 5.56mm | Barrel | #2 | new to top 5 |
| Sons of Liberty Gun WorksSons of Liberty Gun Works Ar-15 A2 Flash Suppressor 22 Cal 1 | Muzzle device | #3 | new to top 5 |
| Sig SauerSig Sauer RM400SDI16BP M400 X-Series 16" 30+1, Black, Magpul | Complete rifle | #2 | new to top 5 |
| Smith & WessonSmith & Wesson M&P15 Complete Lower 5.56x45mm/.223 Remington | Lower | #2 | up from #4 |
| B5 SystemsB5 Systems Type 22 P-Grip - Black | Grip | #2 | up from #4 |
| Sharps BrosSharps Bros Showdown Stripped Lower Receiver - Black, Unique | Lower | #3 | up from #5 |
| Aero PrecisionAero Precision Enhanced M-Lok Handguard Gen 2 15" Black | Handguard | #3 | up from #5 |
| Yankee Hill MachineYankee Hill Machine A3 Ar-15 Upper Receiver Assembly | Upper | #4 | new to top 5 |
| Part | Slot | Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aero PrecisionAero Precision M4E1 Threaded Complete Upper, 16" 5.56 Mid-Le | Upper | out | out of top 5 (was #3) |
| TacFireMaximize Your AR-15's Potential with Tacfire's 15" ACE M-LOK | Handguard | out | out of top 5 (was #3) |
| SureFireSureFire SOCOM 4 Prong 5.56 Flash Hider - Suppressor Adapter | Muzzle device | out | out of top 5 (was #3) |
| EOTechEOTech G45 Magnifier, 5X, No Mount, Matte Finish, Black - G4 | Magnifier | out | out of top 5 (was #2) |
| Rosco ManufacturingRosco Manufacturing Bloodline 5.56 Ar-15 Barrel M4 Carbine - | Barrel | #3 | down from #1 |
| Daniel DefenseDaniel Defense 14.5" 5.56 Nato Chf Mid-Length 1:7 Government | Barrel | out | out of top 5 (was #4) |
| Fortis ManufacturingFortis Control 300 Blk Muzzle Brake 5/8x24 - Black | Muzzle device | out | out of top 5 (was #4) |
| Aero PrecisionAero Precision M4e1 Complete Lower Receiver W/moe Sl Grip & | Lower | #4 | down from #2 |
| Brand | Share | vs prior |
|---|---|---|
| Palmetto State Armory | 22.1% | +2.1 pts |
| CMMG | 23.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Geissele | 44.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Wilson Combat | 26.1% | +1.2 pts |
| B5 Systems | 17.2% | +1.0 pts |
| Bravo Company | 37.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Brand | Share | vs prior |
|---|---|---|
| Aero Precision | 33.3% | -9.8 pts |
| Radian | 29.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Fortis Manufacturing | 10% | -2.3 pts |
| EOTech | 14.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Vortex Optics | 9.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Midwest Industries | 9.3% | -1.2 pts |
Builder data. Rifle configurations saved in the AR-15 builder from July 1 to September 9, 2026. We drop empty builds, builds with fewer than three parts, Glock builds, staff and test accounts, and builds cloned from a community build and left unchanged; in this window those exclusions removed 41% of saved builds. The qualifying builds contributed 49,000+ part selections. A part counts once per rifle, however many times it was swapped in and out. Roughly 4% of qualifying builds came from signed in accounts; the rest were anonymous sessions.
Price data. 27 retailers, 50,493 products and 988 brands had at least one price observation across 70 daily snapshots in the window (1,850,835 product days). Every price figure uses the lowest in stock offer on the day; days with no in stock offer are excluded from price statistics and counted in the stock rate. Ammo is normalized to cost per round from the listing's round count. Build costs use the lowest in stock offer per part as of September 9, 2026, so quarter to quarter changes reflect part mix, not price movement.
Three caveats. Selections measure intent, not purchases. Only products in the catalog can win a category. People who save configurations skew toward full rifles, so accessory slots are under counted relative to a typical build. Serialized parts (lowers, uppers, complete rifles) are carried by fewer of the tracked retailers, which raises their measured out of stock rate.
The trigger race is narrowing: the Geissele SSA-E X still leads but its share of rifles with a trigger fell from 20.6% to 17.8%. The top five triggers hold 45.4% of the slot.
Other lengths includes 13.7, 13.9, 7.5 and 8.5 inch. 5 barrels had no length attribute.
Tiers are the bottom, middle and top third of priced builds in each quarter. The series starts in December 2025 with the current builder; the 2020 to 2025 history needs the archived VirtualCarts export before it can be charted on the same axis. Q4 2025 is December only.
| Grade | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26 | Q3 2026 avg | vs Q2 2026 | vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| budget | $804 | $780 | $774 | $786 | -10.9% | n/a |
| mid | $1,529 | $1,672 | $1,490 | $1,564 | -2.5% | n/a |
| premium | $2,834 | $4,213 | $3,414 | $3,487 | +13.0% | n/a |
| Slot | Budget (p20) | Mid (p50) | Premium (p80) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stripped lower | Franklin Armory: Franklin Armory SE-SSP Forged Stripped Pistol Lo ($81) | Yankee Hill Machine: Yankee Hill 125 Stripped Lower Receiver AR-15 22 ($176) | Primary Weapon Systems: PWS MK2 MOD 2 Stripped Lower Receiver ($430) |
| Stripped upper | Nordic Components: Nordic Components Nc15 Extruded Ar-15 Stripped U ($98) | Luth-AR: Ar-308 A3 Stripped Upper Receiver ($151) | ZRODelta: Zro Delta Ar-15 Forged M4 Stripped Upper Receive ($720) |
| Barrel | Faxon Firearms: Faxon Firearms Ar-15/m16 16 Pencil Barrel 4150 Q ($170) | Rosco Manufacturing: Rosco Manufacturing Bloodline 5.56 Ar-15 Barrel ($292) | Great Lakes Firearms and Ammunition: Great Lakes Firearms AR-15 Rifle, .223 Wylde 16" ($788) |
| Gas block | Sadlak Industries: Sadlak Industries .750 Gas Block Lightweight Low ($29) | Sons of Liberty Gun Works: Sons of Liberty Gun Works Liberty Gas Block .750 ($69) | SLR Rifleworks: SLR Rifleworks Sentry Adjustable Gas Block Clamp ($142) |
| Gas tube | Luth-AR: AR-15 Gas Tube Stainless Steel Carbine ($14) | Lantac: LANTAC USA M-SPEC Carbine Length Stainless Steel ($17) | Bootleg: Bootleg AR-15 Carbine Gas Tube - BPGTCS ($21) |
| Handguard | Strike Industries: Strike Siviperhgcfd Viper Handguard Ar 15 Rifle ($29) | Midwest Industries: Midwest Industries, Inc. Combat Handguard M-Lok ($153) | : Geissele Super Modular Rail MK14 M-LOK Handguard ($250) |
| Bolt carrier group | Daniel Defense: Daniel Defense Complete Bolt Head Assembly - 5.5 ($83) | Angstadt Arms: Angstadt Arms .45 Acp Ar-15 Bolt Carrier Group ($164) | Cryptic Coatings: Cryptic Bolt Carrier Group BCG - Complete 458 SO ($247) |
| Charging handle | Yankee Hill Machine: Yankee Hill Machine Ar-15 Charging Handle ($40) | Armaspec: Armaspec Victory Compact Charging Handle, Black ($73) | Radian: Radian Raptor Ar-15 Charging Handle - Radian Gre ($110) |
| Trigger | Rise Armament: Rise Armament Don't Tread on Me Gen2 Curved Trig ($100) | CMC Triggers: CMC Single Stage Combat Curved Hybrid Drop-In Tr ($174) | Geissele: Geissele Automatics AR-15 Super Dynamic Combat T ($250) |
| Buffer tube assembly | AIM Sports: Aim Sports Buffer Tube, Anodized Black - XDB15PS ($32) | Strike Industries: Strike Industries ARPSABK Picatinny Stock Adapte ($52) | San Tan Tactical: San Tan Tactical Ar-15 6-Position Carbine Mil-Sp ($90) |
| Stock | Adaptive Tactical: Adaptive Tactical EX AR Rifle Stock Lite, Black ($41) | Luth-AR: Luth-Ar Llc Ar-15 A2 Mil-Spec Buttstock Assembly ($66) | Magpul: Magpul Hunter Lite Stock - Savage AXIS Short Act ($171) |
| Pistol grip | : MFT ENGAGE Pistol Grip ($17) | Wilson Combat: Wilson Combat Pistol Grip, Black ($23) | : Ergo AR15/M16 Flat Top Tactical DLX SureGrip ($39) |
| Muzzle device | : Battle Arms 223/556 Faux Suppressor Flash Can ($40) | Bravo Company: BCMGUNFIGHTER COMPENSATOR- MOD 4 5.56 ($79) | SilencerCo: Silencerco Steel Blast Shield for ASR Muzzle Dev ($127) |
| Caliber | Low $/rd | vs Q2 2026 | Median $/rd | In stock listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| .22 LR | $0.057 | +20.2% | $0.170 | 33 |
| 9mm | $0.272 | -1.2% | $0.624 | 272 |
| 12 Gauge | $0.336 | -8.2% | $0.838 | 641 |
| .45 ACP | $0.443 | -1.6% | $0.859 | 146 |
| .223 Rem | $0.515 | -2.5% | $0.981 | 185 |
| 5.56 NATO | $0.541 | -1.7% | $0.717 | 73 |
| .300 Blackout | $0.777 | -2.1% | $1.369 | 69 |
| .308 Win | $0.881 | -11.0% | $1.890 | 192 |
| 6.5 Creedmoor | $1.195 | -9.4% | $1.940 | 100 |
KY Gun Company had the lowest in stock price on 24.5% of contested SKU days (up from 20.2%), ahead of Optics Planet (9.5%), BattleHawk (9.3%) and Palmetto State Armory (9.2%). Brownells moved most, 5.6% to 8.7%.
Geissele took the top slot from Magpul by half a point. Aero Precision lost 9.8 points; Bravo Company (37.9%) and Strike Industries (34.0%) were flat.
| Category | Product days with no in stock offer | Q2 2026 | Products tracked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Receiver | 73.2% | 78.0% | 939 |
| Upper Receiver | 68.1% | 71.6% | 2,995 |
| Barrel | 45.9% | 50.9% | 3,394 |
| Handguard | 46.1% | 47.4% | 2,665 |
| Bolt Carrier Group | 47.6% | 52.2% | 868 |
| Trigger | 35.5% | 38.0% | 876 |
| Charging Handle | 31.8% | 34.1% | 698 |
| Stock & Brace | 22.2% | 23.1% | 951 |
| Pistol Grip | 25.6% | 25.0% | 645 |
| Optic | 34.8% | 35.9% | 1,722 |
| Rifle Scope | 32.2% | 32.7% | 2,508 |
| Light | 24.5% | 25.8% | 1,259 |
| Muzzle Device | 31.5% | 33.6% | 2,144 |
| Suppressor | 34.0% | 36.4% | 1,050 |
| Complete Rifle | 51.3% | 54.1% | 1,197 |
| Gas Block | 39.3% | 42.5% | 440 |
| 5.56 NATO | 62.6% | 65.3% | 302 |
Full data set (CSV)
every table on this page, long format
gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q3.csv
Fig 01 (SVG)
top five triggers
gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q3-fig01.svg
Fig 03 (SVG)
build cost tiers over time
gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q3-fig03.svg
Fig 04 (SVG)
cost per round, nine calibers
gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/2026-q3-fig04.svg
Index history (JSON)
quarterly series, cost tiers, build cost index
gunpartpicker.net/insights/dl/index-history.json
Print edition (PDF)
available when the quarter closes
Republishing. Everything on this page is free to reuse with attribution to GunPartPicker and a link to this edition. Aggregates only: individual builds are never released. URLs on this page are stable.
Cite as
Source: GunPartPicker Gun Industry Insights, Q3 2026, gunpartpicker.net/insights/2026-q3
Press contact
mack@gunpartpicker.net. Data requests, interviews, custom cuts by category or brand, embargoed early access.
Audience. GunPartPicker is a parts picker for AR-15 builders with tens of thousands of parts configured each quarter and daily prices from 27 retailers. See the media kit.
Next edition. Q4 2026 covers October through December and publishes in the second week of January 2027.
