Gun Industry Insights · Monthly

September 2026 AR-15 Market Reportfor FFL Dealers and Vendors

What AR-15 builders added, what was in stock and what they paid in September 2026. Written for FFL dealers, gun shops, retailers and parts brands, read from tens of thousands of parts added to builds and daily prices on 30,215 products at 24 retailers.

Published October 1, 2026 · Data window September 1 to 30, 2026

01

September 2026 at a glance

Parts added to builds

Tens of thousands

324 brands, 57.5% on phones

Median price of a part picked

$94.99

▲ +5.6% vs August 2026every part added, at its price that day

Most built brand

19.8%

Geissele, +0.3 ptsshare of builds containing the brand

Cheapest in stock 5.56 per round

$0.534

+1.9% vs August 2026monthly average of the daily low

02

Five takeaways for FFL dealers and vendors

Each is a claim, a number and a comparison with August, written to be quoted as is.
  1. 01

    Complete lowers took over the lower receiver slot: the S&W M&P15 complete lower doubled to 13.4% of builds with a lower.

    It was 6.9% in August and second to the Wilson Combat forged stripped lower, which it passed in September. The PSA MOE EPT complete lower moved from ninth to third. The lower builders reached for most this month comes finished.

  2. 02

    Aero Precision fell from 25.3% of builds to 8.4% because its parts were out of stock almost everywhere.

    Aero's M4E1 stripped lowers and Breach charging handle were in stock on zero of the 26 to 29 days we priced them in September. GunPartPicker began ranking in stock parts first on August 23, so builders saw Aero less often, and the one Aero complete lower that was in stock quadrupled its builds. Expect the share to come back when Aero restocks.

  3. 03

    Radian gained more share than any other brand, from 12.3% of builds to 16.9%.

    Radian Raptor charging handles finished first and third in their slot and the ADAC-15 stripped lower more than doubled its builds. Smith & Wesson (up 4.6 points) and Palmetto State Armory (up 2.3) were the next biggest gainers, both on complete lowers.

  4. 04

    Receivers are where supply is tightest: only 28% of tracked lowers and 25% of uppers were in stock at month end.

    Stocks (67%) and grips (63%) were easy to find. Builders adjust to it: 74% of the lowers they added were in stock at month end. The Wilson Combat forged lower was the second most added lower and was in stock on 4 of the 17 days it was priced. A dealer with receivers on the shelf sells into the tightest part of the market.

  5. 05

    Builders paid more for core parts: the median lower picked rose 5.9% to $225.63 and the median upper 6.8% to $419.99.

    Charging handles rose 15% to $90.99 as Radian and Breek Arms replaced cheaper picks, and the median across every part added went from $89.99 to $94.99. Ammo held at the bottom: the cheapest in stock 5.56 NATO averaged $0.534 a round and 9mm $0.274, while .308 Win rose 13.5% to $1.009.

03

What AR-15 parts to stock: the most added part in every category

The two parts builders added most in each slot, counted once per build. Share is the share of builds with that slot; 54.9% of builds had a lower receiver. Builds are intent, not sales, but they show what a customer will walk in asking for.

Receivers, barrels and the action

CategoryMost addedShareRunner upSharevs Aug
Lower ReceiverSmith & WessonSmith & Wesson M&P15 Complete Lower 5.56x45mm/.223 Remington, Black13.4%Wilson CombatWilson Combat AR-15 Lower Receiver Forged7.4%new #1, was #2
Upper ReceiverBravo CompanyBCM 5.56 NATO Mid-Length BHF AR-15 Barreled Upper, MCMR9.6%GeisseleGeissele AR-15 16 Super Duty Stripped Upper Receiver DDC5.7%held #1
Bolt Carrier GroupBravo CompanyBCM M16 Bolt Carrier Group, Black22.8%Wilson CombatWilson Combat M16 Bolt Carrier Assembly 5.56 NATO Polished Nitride14.6%held #1
TriggerGeisseleGeissele AR-15 SSA-E X Lightning Bow Trigger19.4%GeisseleGeissele AR-15 SSA X Lightning Bow Trigger9.1%held #1
Charging HandleRadianRadian Raptor Charging Handle & Talon Safety Selector Combo, OD Green15.4%Breek ArmsBreek Arms AR-15 Warhammer Mod2 Ambidextrous Charging Handle13.8%new #1, was #2
BarrelDaniel DefenseDaniel Defense 16" 5.56 NATO CHF Mid-Length 1:7 Government Barrel8.6%FN AmericaFN AR-15 M16 Barrel 16" Mid-Length 5.56mm7.9%new #1, was #5
HandguardBravo CompanyBCM M-LOK 13" Modular Rail, Black8.2%Midwest IndustriesMidwest Industries Quad Rail AR-15 Handguard, 15"6.6%new #1, was #4
BufferGeisseleGeissele Super 42 Braided Buffer Spring and H3 Buffer22.9%CMMGCMMG AR-15 Carbine Buffer Assembly17.4%held #1
Buffer TubeBravo CompanyBCM Mil-Spec 6 Position Receiver Extension32.9%GeisseleGeissele AR-15 Premium Buffer Tube DDC13%held #1
Gas BlockSons of Liberty Gun WorksSOLGW Gas Block V2, .750"16%Strike IndustriesStrike Industries Collar Adjustable Gas Block15.3%new #1, was #4
Muzzle DeviceSons of Liberty Gun WorksSOLGW AR-15 A2 Flash Suppressor 1/2-2813.1%HuxwrxHuxwrx 556 QD Flash Hider 1/2x2810.4%new #1, was #5
Complete RiflePalmetto State ArmoryPSA PA-15 16" Nitride M4 Carbine 5.56 NATO, 13.5" M-Lok11.2%DiamondbackDiamondback DB-15 300 BLK AR-15 Pistol, 10", FDE5.4%held #1

Furniture and controls

Optics, lights and suppressors

04

Brand share of AR-15 builds

Share of builds that contain at least one part from the brand. A build with a Geissele trigger and a Magpul stock counts for both.

Top 20 brands by share of builds

* Aero Precision is counted with 200 listings filed under a misspelled brand name; on its brand record alone it reads 6.4% in September and 24.7% in August.
#BrandSeptemberAugChange
1Geissele19.8%19.5%+0.3 pts
2Magpul19.1%18.1%+1.0 pts
3Palmetto State Armory18.8%16.5%+2.3 pts
4Bravo Company17.6%17.6%0.0 pts
5Radian16.9%12.3%+4.6 pts
6Wilson Combat14.1%13.8%+0.3 pts
7Strike Industries13.1%13.9%-0.8 pts
8Rise Armament10.9%10.8%+0.1 pts
9CMMG10.8%10.6%+0.2 pts
10Smith & Wesson9.7%5.1%+4.6 pts
11Daniel Defense8.6%7.7%+0.9 pts
12Aero Precision *8.4%25.3%-16.9 pts
13Timber Creek7.8%8.2%-0.4 pts
14Spike's Tactical7.6%7.3%+0.3 pts
15EOTech7.5%6.5%+1.0 pts
16B5 Systems6.8%7.1%-0.3 pts
17Sig Sauer6.4%6.6%-0.2 pts
18Streamlight5.3%4.4%+0.9 pts
19Breek Arms5.2%3.6%+1.6 pts
20Lewis Machine & Tool4.8%4.2%+0.6 pts

Brands gaining share

BrandSharevs Aug
Radian16.9%+4.6 pts
Smith & Wesson9.7%+4.6 pts
Palmetto State Armory18.8%+2.3 pts
Breek Arms5.2%+1.6 pts
Griffin Armament3.1%+1.1 pts
EOTech7.5%+1.0 pts

Brands losing share

BrandSharevs Aug
Aero Precision8.4%-16.9 pts
Fortis Manufacturing3.5%-1.6 pts
Strike Industries13.1%-0.8 pts
Hogue2.4%-0.7 pts
Phase 5 Weapon Systems4.3%-0.6 pts
Dead Air Armament3.1%-0.6 pts
05

Parts gaining and losing demand

Builds that added the part in September against August. Most of the losers are Aero Precision parts that spent the month out of stock.

Gaining demand

PartSlotvs Aug
Smith & WessonM&P15 Complete Lower, BlackLower Receiver+82.2%
Palmetto State ArmoryPSA Complete Lower, Magpul MOE EPT, FDELower Receiver+132.6%
Wilson CombatM16 Bolt Carrier Assembly, Polished NitrideBolt Carrier Group+87.2%
RadianRaptor Slim Line Ambi Charging HandleCharging Handle+65.5%
Aero PrecisionAR15 Complete Lower, FDE MOE Grip and SL-S StockLower Receiver+326.1%
RadianADAC-15 Stripped Lower Receiver, GrayLower Receiver+166.7%

Losing demand

PartSlotvs Aug
Aero PrecisionBreach Ambidextrous Charging HandleCharging Handle-91.3%
Aero PrecisionM4E1 Complete Lower, MOE SL Grip and SL-S StockLower Receiver-93.8%
Aero PrecisionM4E1 Stripped Lower, Special EditionLower Receiver-91.6%
Bravo CompanyUpper Receiver Assembly, T-MarkingsUpper Receiver-91.8%
Fortis ManufacturingLightweight Enhanced End Plate, GoldEnd Plate-89.5%
Aero PrecisionM4E1 Stripped Lower, FDE CerakoteLower Receiver-83.2%
06

In stock rates: where dealers can win the sale

Tracked: every product priced at a tracked retailer, in stock on the last snapshot of the month. Picked: parts builders added, weighted by how often each was added. The gap is the point: builders skip what they cannot buy. Picked rates rose in September partly because GunPartPicker began ranking in stock parts first on August 23.

Popular parts that were hard to find

Parts in the top 300 by builds that were in stock on fewer than a third of the days they were priced.
PartDays in stock
Wilson CombatAR-15 Lower Receiver, Forged4 of 17
Yankee Hill MachineBillet Upper Receiver, Matte Black5 of 22
Forward Controls DesignAR-15 Handguard 13.7 in. M-Lok7 of 21
Aero PrecisionBreach Ambidextrous Charging Handle0 of 29
Aero PrecisionM4E1 Stripped Lower, Black0 of 27
Aero PrecisionM4E1 Stripped Lower, FDE Cerakote0 of 28

In stock rate by category at month end

Lowest tracked in stock rate first.
CategoryTrackedAugPicked
Upper Receiver24.8%25.2%71.7%
Lower Receiver28.1%24.6%74.3%
Barrel41.5%40.8%68.8%
Handguard41.6%42.4%73.2%
Complete Rifle44.3%45.7%63.0%
Trigger45.5%44.6%56.8%
Bolt Carrier Group46.8%44.8%88.1%
Gas Block47.1%46.3%67.7%
Suppressor51.4%52.9%79.3%
Optic52.3%49.9%82.3%
Charging Handle54.2%54.4%93.8%
Rifle Scope54.7%51.1%87.9%
Muzzle Device57.0%56.1%82.2%
Light57.0%55.4%86.2%
Safety59.5%62.9%93.6%
Pistol Grip62.8%60.3%90.0%
Foregrip63.0%61.4%84.8%
Stock & Brace66.6%67.0%89.0%
07

What AR-15 builders pay per part

Median price of the part a builder added, at that part's lowest in stock price the moment it was added. It shows where in the price range demand sits, which is what a dealer prices and stocks against.
CategorySeptemberAugChange
Lower Receiver$225.63$212.99+5.9%
Upper Receiver$419.99$393.34+6.8%
Barrel$199.73$199.73flat
Handguard$175.46$174.95flat
Bolt Carrier Group$199.00$199.00flat
Trigger$159.13$166.81-4.6%
Charging Handle$90.99$78.88+15.4%
Buffer Tube Assembly$68.95$99.20-30.5%
Gas Block$51.30$43.42+18.1%
Muzzle Device$65.99$72.56-9.1%
Stock & Brace$54.51$52.99+2.9%
Pistol Grip$17.95$18.99-5.5%
Safety$44.99$45.00flat
Magazine Release$29.75$23.70+25.5%
Optic$520.84$484.99+7.4%
Rifle Scope$399.99$349.49+14.4%
Light$155.99$155.09+0.6%
Suppressor$869.99$899.99-3.3%
Complete Rifle$729.82$949.99-23.2%
08

Where AR-15 builders are: top states

Share of parts added from US visitors, September 13 to 30, when location capture started; it covers 68% of the month's adds. Location comes from the visitor's IP address, so VPNs and mobile carriers can place someone in a neighboring state.

#1 Texas

11.6%

#2 New York

9%

#3 Florida

5.9%

#4 California

4.9%

#5 Pennsylvania

4.3%

#6 Ohio

4.2%

#7 Georgia

4%

#8 Michigan

3.6%

#9 Virginia

3.1%

#10 North Carolina

3%

#11 Washington

3%

#12 Indiana

2.6%

09

Which retailers had the lowest price

Share of contested product days (a product in stock at two or more tracked retailers on the same day) on which each retailer had the lowest in stock price. KY Gun Company led again; Brownells moved most, up from 6.9% to 11.7%, and BattleHawk Armory halved to 7.5%.
RetailerSeptemberAugChange
KY Gun Company20.9%22%-1.1 pts
Brownells11.7%6.9%+4.8 pts
GritR Sports10.7%8.9%+1.8 pts
Classic Firearms8.4%7.2%+1.2 pts
BattleHawk Armory7.5%15.1%-7.6 pts
Palmetto State Armory7.2%6.9%+0.3 pts
Primary Arms6.4%4.3%+2.1 pts
AR15 Discounts4.9%4%+0.9 pts
Optics Planet4.8%6.5%-1.7 pts
Dirty Bird Industries4.3%3.5%+0.8 pts
Ammunition Depot4.1%4.3%-0.2 pts
MidwayUSA2.9%3.7%-0.8 pts
10

Ammo prices per round, September 2026

Low is the 5th percentile of in stock listings each day, averaged over the month; it is the number to quote for the cheapest ammo you can buy. Median is the typical listing. The full 55 caliber series lives on each caliber's ammo page.
Daily average of in stock listings across the month.
CaliberLow $/rdvs AugMedian $/rdIn stock listings
.22 LR$0.073+30.4%$0.12429
9mm$0.274+2.2%$0.572361
12 Gauge$0.367+20.3%$0.869866
.40 S&W$0.394+1.8%$0.712242
.45 ACP$0.440-2.9%$0.816200
.223 Rem$0.514+0.4%$0.976239
5.56 NATO$0.534+1.9%$0.673107
7.62x39mm$0.698+1.5%$1.05037
.300 Blackout$0.745-4.2%$1.41091
.308 Win$1.009+13.5%$1.958270
6.5 Creedmoor$1.115+0.2%$2.022123
11

Where this data comes from

Builder data. Every part added to a build in the GunPartPicker builder from September 1 to 30, 2026, UTC. A part counts once per build however many times it was swapped in and out, and brands come from the brand record, so twin spellings of one company count together. August uses the same rules. Adds measure intent, not purchases.

Stock and price data. Daily snapshots of 30,215 products at 24 tracked retailers. In stock means at least one tracked retailer listed it as in stock on the day. Serialized parts are carried by fewer of the tracked retailers, which raises their measured out of stock rate. Ammo is normalized to cost per round from each listing's round count.

One change on our side. On August 23 the builder began ranking in stock parts first. It moved demand toward parts people can buy, so some of the August to September shift in brand share, above all Aero Precision, reflects that change as well as the market.

12

Citation and press

Cite as

GunPartPicker Gun Industry Insights, September 2026, gunpartpicker.net/insights/2026-09

Press and data requests

mack@gunpartpicker.net. Custom cuts by brand, category or state for dealers and manufacturers.

For brands and retailers. See the media kit and the quarterly Gun Industry Insights.

Next edition. October 2026 publishes in the first week of November. The Q3 2026 quarterly edition publishes in the second week of October.